The Endgame: Inside Vladimir Putin's Mind
Is this the most dangerous game of the 21st century?
Today marks almost a week since a full-blown war on Ukraine was waged by Vladimir Putin. A terrible war is being fought using all kinds of weapons and from all sides on a peaceful neighbour. Hundreds of casualties, millions of displaced people and significant damage to eastern European economies and the global economy are already a reality — not even a week after the war started.
Right now, Putin is probably the most hated figure globally. You may hate or you may even love the man — in any case, if you want to understand the Endgame, you must think like Putin; You must become Putin.
You wake up in Novo-Ogaryovo
Your army chief is reluctant to tell you about the real situation on the ground north of Kyiv and west of Kharkiv. Your team is a sugar-coating, group-think ridden bunch of Papageis. But never mind, You are Ex-KGB. You understand this. You understand global power dynamics. In fact, you have gathered unmatchable power in Russia in the last 30 years.
Today your Troops are advancing slowly — a bit slower than you would like. Ukraine is showing strong resistance, but your men are telling you everything is under control. They might lose some battles, but you will win the war. Your escalation orders are underway, you want to show the world how strong your army is. You demand respect, you want your enemies to fear you. At the end of the day, you command one of the most powerful armies in the world. In a traditional war, you are certain Ukraine’s cities will not hold long.
So far and for months now, your enemies are becoming stronger and more united. After the war started, even Germany is sending weapons to Ukraine. “Neutral” Switzerland is siding with Ukraine and Turkey is sending drones. The US, Europe and their allies mobilized a global world order of unmatchable scale. They sanctioned Russian companies, closed airspace, sanctioned Russian Billionaires and even banned Russia from the Swift Network. The global media machine is waging the strongest campaign in decades against Russia. Social media — A tool mastered by Russian operators is blowing up with global Ukrainian support. Is it Checkmate?
Putin’s Interests
Hopefully, you’re closer to the state of mind of Putin right now. I don’t know Putin’s real goals of this war, what he really wants to achieve. To some, he wants to control Ukraine & transform it into a Pro-Russia buffer zone. Reduce NATO forces to before 1997 — It may be. To others, it may also be that he is more and more cornered globally and he needs to secure his vision and his legacy. Achieving a multipolar world with politically close partners like China. There might be internal reasons as well. Putin controls the narrative in Russia and war can be a powerful catalyst to whatever plans Putin has for the Russian people.
Putin’s Options
I think all options are on the table for Putin. The man is isolated, threatened and facing the biggest coalition in modern history. Don’t be mistaken; Putin still has a lot of leverage:
He might stop gas supplies to Europe
He might call for concrete military & economic support from China & other countries — Creating an official alliance with China
He could attack non-NATO neighbours outside Russia such as Moldova, Georgia and Finland
He might completely destroy Ukraine with chemical weapons, traditional weapons and create the biggest humanitarian catastrophe in Europe in the recent history
He could attack NATO members if a point of no return is reached. This could even include Nuclear Weapons.
To the Ukrainians negotiating today with the Russians, they must understand Putin’s real goals and his BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) to reach a positive outcome. Back-channels and side-channels between the US and Russia must work very hard to find a start to the conversation. Putin’s BATNA is to keep increasing the pressure — for the Ukrainians, it’s to keep resisting & to keep their allies engaged.
Sadly, in my opinion, I don’t see signs of an endgame in these negotiations. This conflict will continue until a fundamental change of the strategic equation happens.
Preventing war is much easier than stopping it. The world failed at the former, but it doesn’t afford to keep the latter.
in-depth as always, love your take on this!
A good article