Afghanistan: Lessons from Game Theory

On August 15th, the Taliban was able to take complete control of Kabul & other big Afghan cities. All within a few hours - After 20 years of fighting, the Afghan Army simply ran out of steam and gave up.

So What happened?

The power of Commitment & Signalling

Let’s get back to last year - While the world was battling the Corona Virus, negotiations have been ongoing between the US and the Taliban in Doha. As an outcome of the US negotiations with the Taliban (also known as the Doha Agreement), The US has committed to a full withdrawal of its troops by end of August 2021. The US commitment has been contingent on a set of conditions upon which the US would achieve its strategic goals and offer the Taliban a way forward to the governance of the country. The outcome of these negotiations has been widely communicated & globally publicized.

Ever since the agreement Taliban has been testing the strength of the US commitment. Violence in the country post-agreement actually went up and the attacks against the Afghan Army & security forces have surged dramatically. With the date of the withdrawal coming closer, the Taliban have been slowly taking over small towns & rural areas. In this environment, the US did signal that it is not changing its strategy and will be withdrawing its troops as scheduled. A few weeks after that, the Taliban has during a weekend essentially taken over the whole country.

The US commitment has been a strong signal to the Taliban that they can simply wait the US intervention out. This signal was also very strong to the Afghan Government that the game has changed. The US has decided to leave and an ultimatum has to be drawn in the sand.

By committing to a withdrawal date, the US started the clock for the demise of the Afghan government. The single biggest leverage the Taliban has had in the last 20 years has been time.

From a United States perspective, I believe the US did not have a choice, but to withdraw and manage the aftermath. Let’s analyze the different outcomes based on the decision tree below:

Scenario 1: Fight, Fight

This scenario has been playing out in the last 20 years where the US and the Taliban keep fighting in an endless loop. In this scenario, the US suffers huge financial and political losses as it is playing the infinite game with the Taliban. The Taliban gets its legitimacy from fighting the US and therefore they will incur a small cost, but the US will incur a huge loss (Outcome A).

Scenario 2: Fight, Collaborate

In this scenario, the US will keep fighting with a strong presence in Afghanistan while the Taliban will stop fighting and decide to collaborate with the US. Potentially this means that there is a new enemy in Afghanistan. In this scenario, the US will still incur big losses since its losses are related to the fact it is present in Afghanistan. The political losses are also huge as the US cannot justify to its constituents why it is still fighting in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Taliban losses are also big as its political capital is fully derived from fighting the US (Outcome B).

Scenario 3: Collaborate, Fight

In this scenario, the US withdraws, but the Taliban keeps its hostilities and potentially keep fighting the US. Basically, this is the scenario that would have happened if the US withdrew immediately after bombing the Taliban in 2001.

In this case, the US will suffer a smaller loss compared to scenarios 1 and 2, as its mission is quick but unfinished. Economically this might make sense, however politically it’s a dangerous strategy as this will signal to the world that the US did not eliminate the threat and is strategically changing its role post world war II. From a Taliban perspective, they will gain significant authority among their supporters since they will be able to sell this as a win against the US (Outcome C).

Scenario 4: Collaborate, Collaborate

In this scenario, the US and the Taliban will reach some kind of understanding. The US withdraws from Afghanistan, while the Taliban assures the US that it will keep the terrorists at bay. In this scenario, the outcome for the United States is much better than scenario 3 as it is has stopped the fighting. Politically, however, this option is extremely hard to navigate as the US needs to reshape the narrative regarding the Taliban, manage a very risky withdrawal that is largely based on trusting the Taliban and manage its domestic political scene as the divisiveness in the US reaches historic levels. From a Taliban perspective, I believe this will even strengthen their position as they are able to sell a winning story at home. They will also be able to position themselves as a legitimate authority in Afghan politics that did not only win against the US but got its backing too (Outcome D).

Summary

By looking at the decision tree, it’s obvious that the US has only one option: collaborate. I believe as long as the Taliban narrative as a protector and a political power in Afghanistan stands and takes shape, the Taliban will also most likely collaborate too. However, I believe this equilibrium is rather fragile. External players, other factions within the Taliban that are not happy with the status quo and other Afghan players can easily change the dynamics of this Game. Will this end the conflict in this country? let’s wait and see.